Can Trump Persuade India, Pakistan, China to Stop Nuclear Race

South Asia is one of the few regions in the world where the number of nuclear warheads is increasing annually.

Among the three nuclear-armed countries in the region, China is believed to be expanding its nuclear capabilities at a rapid pace.

Concerned about this, former U.S. President Donald Trump has stated that he wants to restart negotiations on nuclear arms reduction with Russia and China.

He hopes to include other countries, such as Pakistan and India, in this plan.

During a press briefing with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte on Thursday, Trump noted that while Russia and the U.S. have the largest nuclear arsenals, “China will reach this level in the next five years.”

Trump also discussed nuclear disarmament and even the complete elimination of nuclear weapons, referencing India, Pakistan, and South Korea in his remarks.

Trump’s Past Failure in Nuclear Negotiations

During his first term, Trump failed to engage China in nuclear arms reduction talks. At the time, the U.S. and Russia were negotiating a treaty, but after Biden took office, Russia suspended its participation.

“We Will Also Talk to Other Countries About Giving Up Nuclear Weapons”

Trump made these remarks while discussing efforts to end the Ukraine war and establish peace with Russia.

When asked about an upcoming meeting between Russian and Iranian leaders in China regarding nuclear discussions, Trump responded:

“Maybe they will discuss non-nuclear projects. Maybe they will talk about reducing nuclear tensions. Because I told President Putin very firmly that we could have done something about this if there had been no (alleged) election fraud. I could have made a deal with Putin to give up nuclear weapons.”

Trump emphasized the destructive power of nuclear weapons, warning that China will soon have a nuclear arsenal comparable to the U.S. and Russia.

Global Nuclear Arms Race

According to the 2024 report by the Swedish think tank SIPRI, nine nuclear-armed countries— the U.S., Russia, the UK, France, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea, and Israel— are continuously modernizing their nuclear arsenals.

The report states:

India has 172 nuclear warheads

Pakistan has 170 nuclear warheads

China’s arsenal has increased from 410 to 500 warheads

Russia and the U.S. together hold 90% of the world’s nuclear weapons, though they have been gradually dismantling older warheads.

Since 1986, when global nuclear warheads numbered 70,000, the number has dropped to just over 12,000 today.

Why Is It Difficult to Halt the Nuclear Arms Race in South Asia

China insists that before it participates in nuclear arms reduction talks, the U.S. and Russia must significantly cut their stockpiles.

Experts argue that Trump’s negotiations on nuclear disarmament with Russia have always been challenging and that reaching a new framework could take months.

The current U.S.-Russia treaty on nuclear arms reduction expires in 2026, leaving room for potential negotiations.

India, Pakistan, and China’s Nuclear Dilemma

China’s growing nuclear arsenal is seen as a direct security threat by India.

India, while claiming a “No First Use” policy, continues developing long-range missiles that can target China.

Pakistan views its nuclear weapons as a deterrent against India, not as part of a nuclear arms race.

According to Australian nuclear policy expert Rajeshwari Pillai Rajagopalan, if China expands its nuclear forces, India will likely respond, which could in turn influence Pakistan’s nuclear strategy.

Will Trump Succeed in Convincing India and Pakistan

Defense analyst Rahul Bedi believes Trump’s proposal is unlikely to influence India and Pakistan.

China has the largest nuclear arsenal in South Asia, prompting India to react.

Pakistan follows India’s lead to maintain strategic parity.

India is unlikely to accept third-party mediation on nuclear disarmament due to its sensitive ties with Pakistan.

Nuclear expert Syed Muhammad Ali in Islamabad argues that Pakistan will not reduce its nuclear weapons as long as it perceives an imbalance in defense spending with India.

Additionally, Trump’s administration has encouraged U.S. allies to increase their defense spending, contradicting the idea of nuclear disarmament.

In conclusion, while Trump may attempt to involve Pakistan, India, and China in nuclear arms reduction, deep-rooted regional rivalries and global power dynamics make it highly unlikely that these countries will agree to disarmament anytime soon.